The Q2 2025 White Metal Market Report highlights ongoing uncertainty in the wholesale medium-duty vehicle market, driven primarily by tariffs, high interest rates, and shifting fleet strategies. Once predictable, the fleet industry has faced volatility since the pandemic, with managers now adopting a “wait and see” approach toward tariffs rather than making premature plans. While tariffs remain the biggest unknown, their potential to drive up used vehicle prices adds pressure for both dealers and end users.

Other key themes include a continued pullback from EV adoption, due to limited range and infrastructure, and persistently high interest rates that burden smaller fleets, forcing them to hold aging vehicles and absorb higher maintenance costs. On the positive side, new vehicle availability has improved, with some fleets reporting surplus inventory.

Market performance has been stable so far in 2025, with controlled seasonal volatility. Forecasts point to a 10–12% wholesale market decline by late summer, translating to a manageable 5% year-over-year dip. Class trends vary: lighter vehicles are stable, while Classes 5–7 face the most risk from tariffs and freight demand.

Overall, the market remains resilient. Despite challenges, stability is returning, though uncertainty is likely the “new normal” for fleet professionals.